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Oil MP's slaying aimed at undermining election, destabilising Lebanon, say analysts
September 21, 2007 Edition 1
Beirut: The latest slaying of an anti-Syrian MP in Lebanon is clearly aimed at torpedoing a highly contentious presidential poll and further destabilising the deeply divided country.
"This is not only meant to send a message to March 14 (the ruling majority), but also to destabilise Lebanon," said Amal Saad-Ghorayeb, a political analyst with the Beirut-based Carnegie Middle East Centre.
Like most of the assassinations that have claimed the lives of eight anti-Syrian figures since 2005, Wednesday's killing of MP Antoine Ghanem came just as the Western-backed majority and the Syrian-backed opposition appeared to be headed towards compromise, Ghorayeb said.
"What is quite suspicious is that this occurred when a deal appeared to be in the works between March 14 and March 8 and the deal is scuttled as a result," she said.
Ghorayeb was referring to meetings that had been set to take place in coming days between parliament Speaker and key opposition leader Nabih Berri, and members of the Western-backed majority - including parliamentary majority leader Saad Hariri. Berri was also set to meet with influential Christian Maronite leader Nasrallah Sfeir today.
The meetings, which have been cancelled, were aimed at reaching compromise ahead of a key session in parliament on Tuesday to choose a successor to pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud, whose mandate expires in November.
Nicolas Nassif, a political commentator for the opposition newspaper Al-Akhbar, said he expected the two feuding sides to escalate the crisis up to the 11th hour.
Parliament has between September 25 and November 24 to elect a president, with MPs in permanent session the last 10 days.
"Each side is going to try and gain profit from this," said Nassif.
"The majority by trying to force those in its ranks to agree to an absolute majority vote in parliament, and the opposition by seeking to force the majority to agree to a consensus president."
Rosana Bou Monsef, senior political analyst at Lebanon's leading An-Nahar newspaper, said Ghanem's killing was aimed at sending several messages ahead of the key poll and at escalating the crisis.
"This raises tension in the country overall," she said. "And regionally, this is a message that the Lebanese cannot decide on their own."
Ghanem was the eighth member of the anti-Syrian majority to be assassinated since the February 2005 murder of five-times prime minister and billionaire tycoon Hariri.
His death reduced the majority in parliament to 68 members out of the now 127-member house, with numbers set to play a key role in the presidential vote.
The country has been on edge since Hariri's killing in an attack that was widely blamed on Syria, and forced it to end three decades of military domination.
Damascus has denied any connection with the Hariri killing or any of the others since then.
Lebanon's political crisis was exacerbated when pro-Syrian opposition forces, led by the Shi'ite movement Hizbollah, withdrew six ministers from Siniora's Western-backed cabinet in November.
Analysts say failure by the political foes to choose a consensus presidential candidate could spark a dangerous power vacuum or even lead to the naming of two rival governments. - Sapa-AFP
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